RFK Jr. Abandons Democratic Primary, Announces Independent Run

The dynamics of the 2024 presidential election may now be fundamentally altered: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has officially announced that he’s no longer a primary challenger to President Biden for the Democratic nomination—instead, he’ll be running in the general election as an independent.

This isn’t much of a surprise: despite Biden’s unpopularity, he’s maintained an overwhelming advantage over Democratic challengers like Kennedy and Marianne Williamson, and doesn’t seem particularly inclined to allow them a competitive primary with debates.

The most important question now is how the rematch between Biden and Donald Trump—which will almost certainly be painfully close—might be influenced by independent challengers like Kennedy and Dr. Cornel West. As a lifelong progressive activist, the risk of West to Biden’s reelection is straightforward. Kennedy, on the other hand, is a wild card.

Independents stand virtually no chance of securing the presidency in modern politics; the most successful independent bid in modern U.S. history was by Texas billionaire Ross Perot in 1992. He secured 8% of the popular vote in the general election.

Though his climate change activism and initial attempt to challenge Biden in the primary might suggest he’d siphon more Democratic voters, Kennedy actually polls much more favorably among Republican voters by 30 points. Moreover, he is better known today for his outspokenly anti-vax stances, endorsement of conspiracy theories, and refusal to harshly criticize Trump than climate change activism.

The potential risk, in turn, will be determined in large part by Kennedy’s ballot access in the fifty states, which is relatively easy to secure in most states—as long as the candidate is backed by an established third party.

Fortunately for him, now that West is also officially running as an independent, the Green Party has a vacancy.